Archive for October, 2008

“Drill here, drill now?” not so much…

Friday, October 10th, 2008

I ripped this off the financial newswires. As we have noted here before, there won’t be much “drilling here, drilling now, or paying less”going forward in the face of this continued death spiral in the equity markets. Oil exploration budgets are being cut as fast as the value of 401(k)s all of a sudden. “Peak money” seems to now be driving peak oil.
You can mentally fast-forward three or four years when the next major gap between global hydrocarbon supply and global hydrocarbon demand is “discovered” again. To correct such a shortfall you don’t just drill several thousand 20,000- 40,000-foot depth oil or gas wells in a few weeks using equipment that never got built because it was deemed unneeded.

A good question to be asking in your local study circles: How can our region cut its BTU consumption by, say, half or two-thirds in the next three to five years? How can we quickly insulate our local economy [village, township, city, county] from the next energy shocks? And do so in a very tight money environment…
Bobby G,

Central Exposure, Wisconsin USA

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ANALYSIS-US energy firms to cut spending as crisis spreads
Tuesday 10/07/2008 1:37 PM ET – Xinhua Financial News
Related Companies
Symbol Last %Chg
CHK 22.40 -15.47%
HK 12.15 -13.77%
PXP 21.70 -12.57%
SD 12.54 -14.87%
As of 4:06 PM ET 10/7/08
The number of U.S. independent energy companies cutting exploration
budgets is expected to grow as the global credit crisis worsens,
especially among those smaller natural gas firms that have outspent
cash flow to fund their growth.
A 50 percent drop in natural gas futures from summer highs has
prompted companies like Chesapeake Energy Corp, Petrohawk Energy Corp,
Plains Exploration & Production Co, SandRidge Energy Inc and
PetroQuest Energy Inc to cut back on capital spending.
But now as the global financial crisis reaches deeper into the energy
sector, others are expected to cut their exploration budgets,
especially small-to-medium sized companies and those that have large
debt loads.
“Uncertainty around both commodity prices and credit availability
could play a significant role in the capital budgeting process for
next year,” Jeffrey Robertson, energy analyst with Barclays Capital,
said in a note to clients on Monday. “We expect others may follow in
an effort to preserve financial flexibility.”
Quicksilver Resources Inc is one growth-oriented company with cash
flow deficits that will likely cut its capital spending, Robertson
told his clients.
Companies with the weakest positions based on cash flow estimates,
liquidity and expected expenditures include Venoco Inc, ATP Oil & Gas
Corp, Quicksilver and Bill Barrett Corp, according to Barclays.
In fact it may be impossible for the U.S. exploration and production
sector to spend more than cash flows in 2009, or at least for the next
few quarters, analysts at Tudor, Pickering Holt & Co. Securities Inc
wrote on Tuesday.
BIGGER IS BETTER
Higher up the food chain, larger independents like Devon Energy Corp
and major oil companies like Exxon Mobil Corp so far have been seen as
safer from the financial markets fallout because they have plenty of
cash on hand and are much less vulnerable to swings in commodity
prices, analysts said.
In one example, Anadarko Petroleum Corp on Tuesday said it had paid
down some debt and had $1.9 billion in cash at the end of the third
quarter.
Even if more companies cut their exploration budgets, investors would
not need to worry too much because it would eventually lead to a
reduction in U.S. natural gas supply, said Mike Breard, senior energy
analyst with Hodges Capital Management.
“The market is self-correcting,” Breard said. “If people cut back on
drilling expenditures, then gas prices are eventually going to go back
up.”
Companies that planned to sell assets as a means of raising capital
may also run into trouble as the credit crisis shuts down sources of
financing for buyers.
“Overall the pace of exploration and production mergers and
acquisition activity — well off its 2005-2006 peak levels — should
further slow, due in part to the scarcity of financing,” Raymond James
said in a note to clients on Monday.
Producers have been actively shopping assets — especially those with
marginal rates of return — as a means of funding spending, but some
of those properties have not found buyers, the analysts said.

“Drill here, drill now, pay less?”

Saturday, October 4th, 2008

Now, that’s a really catchy slogan isn’t it?

With the financial crisis just gaining steam, where are you drill-hungry people (well, i know you’re not going to do the drilling, you’ll leave that to the “pros,” the oil and gas industry workers who have yet to be hired because all the people with the skills to do that work are already at work, in fact, overworked).

Where are your drilling companies going to get the unleased rotary drill rigs, by the way? They’re all leased out. And the big $500 million or more drill ships? Already spoken for.

Where are the drilling companies going to get the capital to build more rotary rigs, and drill ships? Oh, that’s right, there’s a credit crisis going on right now.

And when these companies finally do get their workers on board, and the capital to build more drill rigs, there’s the small problem that the USA really doesn’t have that much more oil out there on those coastlines just waiting to be found.

No, we really can’t drill our way out of the peak oil problem. Bummer, dudes.

B.G.

What was rescued?

Friday, October 3rd, 2008

What was rescued?

You probably noted the paradoxical response of the stock markets today after the “rescue” plan or “bailout” bill passed. Was this a glitch, or a sign that the professional investor class really don’t have confidence [we were promised they would have] that this bill will rescue the faltering markets? What was actually rescued today? To me, it looks like the inevitable crisis was merely postponed–a few weeks? A few months? Time will tell.

Our “national debt” ceiling is inching toward the level where it will equal one full year’s Gross Domestic Product. I don’t believe that milestone has ever been reached before.

Did we rescue the present at the expense of future generations? I think the answer may be, yes, yes we did.

What bothers me is that both the major party candidates are still talking in terms of heaping more deficit on top of the existing deficits, helping to push the total debt ceiling over the level of one year’s GDP.

Tax cuts, whether they go to “the rich” or to “the middle class” both have the net effect of increasing that deficit. The rhetoric is meaningless in the face of what both parties propose to do: saddle future generations with ever-rising levels of unpayable deficits.

Some time ago, Sen. Obama proposes an additional “stimulus” plan. That, too, would merely add to the deficit and the overall debt ceiling. This is not what is needed. But it is an idea that hasn’t been taken off the table, so that thinking must still be operative in that campaign.

The Iraq-war damage to our economy having already been done, both candidates talk of prolonging the war in Afghanistan, perhaps widening it toward Pakistan and points far beyond. In all of this is no acknowledgement that we’re dead broke and in no shape to wage any further interventionist warfare.

What we need –as a whole nation–is some sort of plan that acknowledges the complete unsustainability of the entire consumption system in this nation/the global economy, where we have been using debt as if it were income. Our spending habits have already been overstimulated to the point where the system is breaking down right in front of us, yet politicians are proposing more overstimulation of consumption.

Quoting Dennis Hopper, “what we need is a plan.” This plan has to come from below, and it has to involve constriction of consumption, not further stimulation. We need to embark on a grass-roots, thought-out, careful and methodical disassembly and demolition of the entire economy of consumption. “Smart Shrinkage” if you will, and at a fairly rapid pace. Let’s begin a prairie-fire grassroots movement aiming for, say, a 5% decrease in GDP annually, combined with a meaningful one-time “charge-off” of most of US consumer debt.

I don’t see how the system can be “rescued” from above. Today’s looting of the treasury, along with the FNM/FRE looting, the AIG looting, and all the other events of the past month, just illustrate to me the complete bankruptcy of the Washington/Wall Street axis.

Neither party, Democrat nor Republican, neither neoliberal nor neoconservative, have anything left to offer us. The widespread corruption among all parties which brought the mortgage system down has been documented these past few months. Now we should act on our knowledge instead of giving these blokes one more chance, as we seem to keep doing unto eternity.

Those of us working in “sustainability work” locally need to step it up a notch once the “stimulation” of the election is over. We ought to be preparing the local population for further meltdowns, enduring crises, and helping construct the infrastructure of a radically simpler, more local, more autonomous way of living. With great energy and a sense of urgency.

We should be questioning, and where needed, replacing, local politicians who merely repeat the “talking points” of their national counterparts much as Sarah Palin has shown she can do so well. So far all I’m hearing are bland reassurances that somehow, this vast global contraction now underway will pass us by here in Central Wisconsin. Now, can a few job creation successes really offset the steady, grinding loss of employment which the crisis which brought on the “bailout/rescue” brings, or the erosion of employment which will surely follow now that the non-event of the bailout/rescue has been revealed for all to see?

I do not know what these local politicos say when in private, among trusted friends, whether they admit they too may be a bit worried. Or maybe it really is all pollyanna, all the time with them. But failing to do much or anything to prepare the local population for some severely trying hard times seems to me like abdication of leadership on the part of the local power structure. As above, so below, it seems.

We may have seen just the opening act in the global economy’s crisis of sustainability today. I’d give the likelihood of a greatly deepening crisis an 80% probability.

Bobby G
Oct. 3 2008