I ripped this off the financial newswires. As we have noted here before, there won’t be much “drilling here, drilling now, or paying less”going forward in the face of this continued death spiral in the equity markets. Oil exploration budgets are being cut as fast as the value of 401(k)s all of a sudden. “Peak money” seems to now be driving peak oil.
You can mentally fast-forward three or four years when the next major gap between global hydrocarbon supply and global hydrocarbon demand is “discovered” again. To correct such a shortfall you don’t just drill several thousand 20,000- 40,000-foot depth oil or gas wells in a few weeks using equipment that never got built because it was deemed unneeded.
A good question to be asking in your local study circles: How can our region cut its BTU consumption by, say, half or two-thirds in the next three to five years? How can we quickly insulate our local economy [village, township, city, county] from the next energy shocks? And do so in a very tight money environment…
Bobby G,
Central Exposure, Wisconsin USA
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ANALYSIS-US energy firms to cut spending as crisis spreads
Tuesday 10/07/2008 1:37 PM ET – Xinhua Financial News
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The number of U.S. independent energy companies cutting exploration
budgets is expected to grow as the global credit crisis worsens,
especially among those smaller natural gas firms that have outspent
cash flow to fund their growth.
A 50 percent drop in natural gas futures from summer highs has
prompted companies like Chesapeake Energy Corp, Petrohawk Energy Corp,
Plains Exploration & Production Co, SandRidge Energy Inc and
PetroQuest Energy Inc to cut back on capital spending.
But now as the global financial crisis reaches deeper into the energy
sector, others are expected to cut their exploration budgets,
especially small-to-medium sized companies and those that have large
debt loads.
“Uncertainty around both commodity prices and credit availability
could play a significant role in the capital budgeting process for
next year,” Jeffrey Robertson, energy analyst with Barclays Capital,
said in a note to clients on Monday. “We expect others may follow in
an effort to preserve financial flexibility.”
Quicksilver Resources Inc is one growth-oriented company with cash
flow deficits that will likely cut its capital spending, Robertson
told his clients.
Companies with the weakest positions based on cash flow estimates,
liquidity and expected expenditures include Venoco Inc, ATP Oil & Gas
Corp, Quicksilver and Bill Barrett Corp, according to Barclays.
In fact it may be impossible for the U.S. exploration and production
sector to spend more than cash flows in 2009, or at least for the next
few quarters, analysts at Tudor, Pickering Holt & Co. Securities Inc
wrote on Tuesday.
BIGGER IS BETTER
Higher up the food chain, larger independents like Devon Energy Corp
and major oil companies like Exxon Mobil Corp so far have been seen as
safer from the financial markets fallout because they have plenty of
cash on hand and are much less vulnerable to swings in commodity
prices, analysts said.
In one example, Anadarko Petroleum Corp on Tuesday said it had paid
down some debt and had $1.9 billion in cash at the end of the third
quarter.
Even if more companies cut their exploration budgets, investors would
not need to worry too much because it would eventually lead to a
reduction in U.S. natural gas supply, said Mike Breard, senior energy
analyst with Hodges Capital Management.
“The market is self-correcting,” Breard said. “If people cut back on
drilling expenditures, then gas prices are eventually going to go back
up.”
Companies that planned to sell assets as a means of raising capital
may also run into trouble as the credit crisis shuts down sources of
financing for buyers.
“Overall the pace of exploration and production mergers and
acquisition activity — well off its 2005-2006 peak levels — should
further slow, due in part to the scarcity of financing,” Raymond James
said in a note to clients on Monday.
Producers have been actively shopping assets — especially those with
marginal rates of return — as a means of funding spending, but some
of those properties have not found buyers, the analysts said.